THE UK ELECTION-PREDICTIONS?

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As things stand the Tories will win the election with the highest percentage of the popular vote and with the most seats.

But whether they can secure an overall majority in Parliament  is a moot point.

Polls latterly have shifted marginally in their favour but even the most favourable polls  suggest they may fall short by some 14 seats. But what seems to be happening is that the momentum has shifted. The Clegg effect is diminishing incrementally (although I suspect they will fare very well in the local elections) allowing Labour to begin to contemplate second place, nationally  but the Tories appear to have the wind behind them, with ,over the weekend  the Economist, FT, and Times all declaring their support for the Tories,( and the Guardian/Observer -the Lib Dems).  Labour has to rely on the Mirror, and is now advising voters to vote tactically-a sure sign of haemorrhaging confidence. Browns weekend  announcement of a new  ‘seaside csar’  in  the form of another prickly scot, Duncan  Ballantyne, the entrepreneur, was simply bizarre, given that there was no mention of this in their manifesto, until, of course ,one realises how many seaside resorts are marginals. Nobody, of course, was allowed to ask Ballantyne any questions about his role. So much for the new politics.

To be fair, Brown seems to be reserving his best for last, giving  a passionate  and heartfelt performance to voluntary and community groups at the Methodist Central Hall, over the weekend.

Some analysts believe that the Tories could scrape a majority of around 10-15. Others, that they will just fall short. But only just. Remember of course that the Tories might seek a deal with the Democratic Unionists (NI) (and Independents).

My only safe prediction at this stage is that whoever wins will probably have the shortest honeymoon period in recent political history.

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